Production performance of major cereals in Rajasthan 

Abstract

The study conducted an in-depth analysis of the agricultural trends in Rajasthan, India, focusing on wheat and bajra (pearl millet) production from 2000-01 to 2021-22. Using secondary data from diverse sources, incuding Rajasthan Agricultural Statistics and the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, the study employed various analytical methods to assess growth, variability, trend, and decomposition analysis of these major cereal crops. For wheat, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysis revealed significant growing area and output during Period-I (2000-01 to 2010-11), followed by non-significant growth in Period-II (2011-12 to 2021-22), with a note worthy surge in productivity during both periods. Similarly, bajra cultivation exhibited substantial expansion in area and output in Period-l, followed by a decline in area but maintenance of production growth in Period-II. Both crops showed greater instability in production compared to area and yield, with bajra experiencing slightly higher instability. Trend analysis indicated quadratic model for wheat area and production, exponential for bajra production, and linear for both crops' yield. Decomposition analysis revealed that while yield contributed significantly to wheat production growth across all periods, bajra production growth was primarily driven by yield during Period-l but suffered from declining yield and negative area effects overall. These findings offer beneficialinsights into the agricultural dynamics of Rajasthan, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to sustainably enhance cereal crop production amidst changing environmental and socio-economic conditions.