Impact of climatic variables on cumin productivity of north Gujarat districts

Abstract

To quantify the impact of climatic factors on cumin productivity of three districts viz. Banaskantha, Mehsana and Sabarkantha of north Gujarat, weekly weather data of cumin growing season (45^th to 10^th SMW) for 30 years (1991-92 to 2020-21) were analysed. The cumin yield was obtained from Directorate of Agriculture, Gujarat state, Gandhinagar. For each weather variables, simple and weighted weather indices were generated and used to develop stepwise regression equations. The results revealed that generated indices using temperature, relative humidity and bright sunshine play significantly role to determine cumin productivity. The developed yield forecasting models exhibited R2 = 0.51 to 0.70, index of agreement 0.80 to 0.90 and RMSE 73.26 to 105.01 in different districts. The models validated with two years i.e. 2021-22 and 2022-23 independent data sets elucidated that percent deviation between observed and predicted yields varied from 14.4 to 26.8% in different districts.